In a shocking announcement yesterday, US Presidential election Republican contester, Senator Ted Cruz announced that he is pulling out from the Race for the top job. Immediately after the results of Indiana primary, he said this and added that this he has decided because it wouldnot be possible for him to acquire the required number of delegates, necessary for a nomination from the Republican party.
This came a huge shock for his supporters and a good news for those of Trump. Donald Trump welcomed this move and called it " a brave and correct decision". Whilst Cruz's supporters thought he still should have continued to fight for the nomination.
As of now Donald Trump has aggregated 1047 delegates, out of the 1237 necessary for republican nomination. Cruz is second with 565 whereas Rubio and Kasich are respectively third and fourth with 171 and 153 delegates to their names. Marco Rubio was already withdrawn his nomination. (The total number of delegates throughout the country are 2472. The candidate who gets more than half of them i.e.1236+1=1237 automatically wins the nomination.)
Looking at this scenario, Trump needs just 190 more delegates to get nominated. So far, out of the 50 primaries and caucases 41 have already gone for republican party nomination elections and just 9 remain. Out of the total of 2472 republican delegates, 2027 delegates have already been won and just 445 remain. Trump has been securing at an average about 51% delegates so far and after the withdrawal of Cruz's bid, its likely to go upto 90% with just Kasich now remaining as his rival. That means, he will win around 400 more delegates by June 7, when the last pimary, that of the state of California will be held. This will take his tally to approxrimately 1450, far ahead of the number required i.e.1237. Had it not been for the 303 delegates to be won on June 7,he would have got the opportunity to get the majority number of 1237 much before that date, by May 24. Inshort, Trump is all set to be the Presidential nominee of the republican party, by now.
First Marco Rubio and now Ted Cruz showed their wisdom and common sense, when they decided to withdraw their names. Rubio was lagging behind the two front-runners viz Trump and Cruz, when he called off the campaign. Cruz didnot lag as much behind Trump, as what Rubio did. So he continued, but with his loss in Indiana yesterday, it became increasingly obvious to him that, looking at the pace at which Trump was moving towards that majority figure, it was impossible for himself to get there now. With just 445 more delegates available to be won, it was common sense that even if he won all of them ( which was next to impossible ), he would get to 565+445= 1010 which was far short of what was required. Hence he pulled off the campaign. Right decision at the right time. But how about Kasich and Sanders ?
John Kasich has got 153 delegates out of the total 2027 contested so far. That is just around 7.5% of all delegates contested as on date. Even if he wins all the rest of the 445 delegates, (which is highly impossible), he would move to 598 delegates, far short of the target of 1237. Infact, looking at the dominance of Trump over the Republican party primary elections and the past performance of Mr. Kasich in the last 10 months, he would hardly get 20 to 25 delegates from the remaining 445. This means that by no means, John Kasich can achieve that target of 1237 and hence it is impossible for him to get nominated. So then, why did he not announce his decision to quit the race ? What is he still waiting for ? Some kind of a miracle ? I mean, comeon, Mr.Kasich, this is becoming some kind of a joke, when the 2nd and 3rd front-runners have already quit the race and yourself, the 4th front runner, still wants to continue. Do you, in your wildest dreams, think that you stand a chance to be the republican party nominee, with just 153 delegates ? Its very clear that once Trump reaches that majority figure of 1237, it would be impossible for all his criticizers within the party, to stop him from running for Presidency as a Republican party candidate. So, kindly, Mr. John Kasich, just withdraw your name from this race, which has now become unilateral, before you become the object of mockery in the next month by Trump supporters.
Same is the case with Bernie Sanders. With Hillary Clinton securing landslide victories in NewYork,Pennsylvenia,Connecticut,Maryland and Delaware it had become pretty clear by then itself ( April 26), that the delegate math was going against Bernie. Out of the total number of 4763 democratic delegates ( including super-delegates ), the majority figure is 2383. As of now, Hllary has got 2202 and Sanders is standing at 1400. This means Hillary just needs 181 more,whereas Sanders needs 983.Thats an awesome lot.
From a total of 4763 to be won,712 are super delegates while 4051 are delegates. 50% of this number comes at 2382 that means 2383 delegates should be won by the candidate, to get directly nominated as the democratic party nominee. From among those 4051, only 933 remain to be won. And from the 712 total number of super-delegates, 180 remain to be won. That means 1113 delegates (and super-delegates alongwith) are up for grabs still. Out of that Sanders is dreaming to get 983 !! That is almost 88% of the remaining number. From the 3650 number of delegates ( plus super-delegates) won so far, he has won 1400, which means his share is a meagre 38% against Hillary's share of 60% of the total won. Yet he thinks that now something miraculous is going to happen and he will be winning 88% of the rest of the delegates to be won !! Mr Sanders, you too, like John Kasich do not seem to be having that common sense. From your performance in all the primaries so far, it is very clear you cannot be nominated now. Do you think you will be able to win 983 delegates from the remaining 1113 ? Even your wise supporters would be feeling it unachievable now. Then, why don't you quit now ? Instead of being ridiculed by the Clinton camp and political analysts throughtout the country in the next one month, why don't you show some wisdom and exhibit that presence of common sense within yourself, just like what Cruz did today ? Afterall, elections are fought to win and not just for pampering one's false egos that " Oh, I lost but kept fighting till the end ... blah blah blah... !!" Instead of being under that false impression of being a fighter-till-the-end, just show some prudence and call off your campaign, as soon as possible.
Both, Mr. Kasich and Mr. Sanders, should pull out now immediately, for the benefit of their respective parties. This is because once the final nomination for each party is done, then only can Trump and Hillary focus completely on the real contest ahead, i.e. the General Elections 2016. Only then the Republican party and the Democratic party carders,officials and supporters can allot their fullest possible physical and mental energies, with the aim of making their party candidate win and become the President of the US.
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