Back to "Unstable Governments" in India and its global implications

The General Election held every 5 years in India help its voters decide, their choice about who is going to lead it. It's the 7th largest country (in terms of area) in the world and the largest democracy in the world with a population of more than 1.4 billion people living there. It's one of the fastest growing economies of the world and recently in size it became the 3rd largest economy, overtaking the United Kingdom. Looking its increasing stature globally, these General Elections of India carry a massive impact in the geopolitical scenario of Asia Pacific as well as the entire world. So let's delve deeper into the results and what aftereffect it can have on a global scale.

After having about 25 years of governments with unclear majorities, India was fortunate enough to have a government with a clear majority when Mr. Narendra Modi, became the Prime Minister of the country back in 2014. His party the Bharatiya Janata Party came into power winning 281 parliamentary seats on its own. Add to that tally the seats it's allies won and the figure of its combined alliance called the "National Democratic Alliance (NDA)" went up to 332 total seats in the LokSabha or the Lower House of the Indian Parliament. With this clear majority, Modi formed a government at the Center. He ruled successfully for 5 years.

Again after 5 years in 2019, another General Election came about. Modi was able to win that too with 302 seats going to his own party, viz. the BJP was able to form a government at the center once again alongwith his allies. The total number of seats captured by BJP and its allies went up to 332 this time. It was a formidable number and gave Modi a stronger grip on the Parliament, owing to which he was able to take some strict decisions like the abrogation of an unjust Article 370 from the northernmost state of Jammu & Kashmir, which was rather racist and gave more rights to the Indian muslims over the majority community of Indian Hindus in that particular state. BJP also successfully completed the construction of a huge Rama Temple at the birthplace of the widely worshipped Indian God Rama amongst the Hindus. Just to remind the readers, Lord Rama is considered an avatar/ incarnation of Lord Vishnu, who is one amongst the 3 main Gods of the Hindu Religion, alongwith Lord Shiva and Lord Brahma. His ability to fulfil the promise of the construction of Rama Temple at the very site where an illegal structure called the Babri Mosque was standing for 400+ years, won him the hearts of several upper caste Hindus. It was anticipated that owing to this action by him, his party the BJP will perform excellently in these General Elections.

Democracy is very good for the people but there is a fact that in it that is very bad too. It's called anti-incumbency. Any Political party has decreasing chances of repetition of success here, term after term. The party which has won one election and has completed its full term is more likely to be replaced by some other political party after its term is over, rather than it coming back to power for the second time in a row. That factor which doesn't allow it to regain power is known as anti-incumbency. It affects all democratic governments worldwide. So BJP is no exception. Despite this it was able to win a second term - from 2019 to 2024 and that was quite commendable. Now at a place where it is difficult to make it 2 in a row, just imagine the task of making it 3 in a row. After the successful completion of two terms in a row, Narendra Modi was now facing a mammoth task of making it 3 in a row, when the General Elections arrived at his doorsteps this year. It was a daunting task and no other Prime Minister except India's very first Prime Minister Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru was able to achieve this feat. However back in his time (1947 to 1964), the competition faced by him and his party was meagre as compared to what Modi was facing this year. Yet as can be seen from what the election Results are announcing Modi has successfully managed to pull the rabbit out of the hat.

Out of the total 543 parliamentary seats, the BJP is winning in around 235 to 245 seats, this time. Add to that the seats won by its allies like the TDP, the JDU etc. and one can see the NDA alliance easily sail past the much needed majority mark of 272 seats and go up to 295 to 305 seats. That's good news for Indians but it's not great news. Why? Because this is not a clear mandate in which just one party could manage to reach a clear majority as what BJP could manage in the previous two General Elections. As mentioned above the BJP could gather more than 272 seats completely on its own in 2014 and 2019, without the support of its allies. This means it was not dependent on its allies at all to maintain its power at the Center. It could still be power of if in its allies walked away owing to some dispute.

However this time it's not like that any more. The BJP has ofcourse regained power but it is not as strong as what it was in the last two elections. It will have to rely on its allies to retain power at the Center. If they refused to support the BJP the new government will collapse like a pack of cards. In short, Modi's party is now at the mercy of its allies like the Telugu Desham Party (TDP) led by its 74 year old leader ChandraBabu Naidu and the Janata Dal United (JDU) party led by Mr.Nitish Kumar.

Mr. Nitish Kumar carries the bad impression of being hungry for power and may ask BJP to come to the rare side and attempt to form a government at the center with his new 14 MPs (members of parliament), supported by the 235+ MPs of the BJP, 16 MPs of TDP and other allies of the NDA. Under this circumstances, the BJP will have to nod in positive and ask Modi to step aside in order that Nitish Kumar is able to become the next Prime Minister!! Even Chandrababu Naidu can do the same and ask the NDA to make himself the new leader of the alliance and hence the Prime Minister. These election results have has opened up several possibilities for now. It's so much for any average media reporter right now to keep on doing these permutations and combinations. But for India as a country, let me tell you, it's a bad result. It doesn't give a Clearcut majority to a single party and thus whatever government will be formed, will be of a party that will be dependent on other political parties. In politics, opportunism is also present. Any thing can happen in unstable governments as on any given day, the leader of some of the allied partners will revolt and separate his party from the alliance. This will lead to the inevitable - the collapse of the present government. In other words, days of uncertainty have returned back in Indian politics for another 5 years from now or atleast until the time one more General Election doesn't happen very soon and a new stable government headed by a party having a Clearcut absolute majority is not formed.

Now let's examine what the global implications can be of this uncertain result. As is obvious, Modi, if he is chosen Prime Minister once again will not remain as powerful as he was in his first 10 years, at home, that is inside India. A man who is not powerful at home can not remain powerful globally too. So his influence and grip in various places where the leaders of the world come and meet like the G20 summit, the BRICS summit etc. will decrease. He may not remain as popular a leader universally as he was in the last ten years.

However, the magic in democracy is that after such a fractured mandate as what happened today, if Modi can still manage to successfully rule the country through thick and thin, for another 5 years, by somehow managing the troubles that his own alliance partners are going to present to him, then there are very good chances that the BJP will get elected for yet another 5 year term in 2029, with a complete majority on its own (by winning 272+ seats on its own). History books about various democracies of the world, do have such stories where governments have managed to come back to power for the 4th consecutive time, after getting a fractured mandate in its 3rd attempt and surviving it successfully. Let us anticipate this and wish that the BJP regains power with an absolute majority in 2029 by ruling over India efficiently and properly for the 5 years to follow.

***** **** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** *****